Elections in Duval County, Florida, home to Jacksonville, have a chequered past. In 2000, some 27,000 mostly Democratic voters had their votes annulled after filling in the ballot paper incorrectly. George W Bush went on to carry Florida by 537 votes. With their votes counting for nothing, many Duval Democrats became deeply apathetic in the years that followed.

But, as November's Presidential election approaches, there is growing optimism among Barack Obama's supporters in the county. In this traditional Republican stronghold, the Democrats believe victory may be within reach.

The swing state of Florida is a crucial battleground in this year's election. With its large population and wealth of Electoral College votes, the state has the potential to decide the election, as it did for George W Bush in 2000.

Duval, Florida's seventh most populous county, lies in the far north-east corner of the state. In recent years, the county has been reliable Republican territory and critical to keeping Florida in the red column. In 2000, Bush carried Duval by 17 per cent; in 2004, his margin was 16 per cent.

"We Republicans need to win in the north-east by sufficient large margins to offset support for the Democrats in the south of the state," explains John Falconetti, chairman of Duval County's Republicans.

Conservatism runs deep in Duval County and so the choice of Barack Obama, the Chicago law professor widely perceived here as a dyed-in-the-wool liberal, has only strengthened mainstream Republican support.

According to Dr Stephen Baker, of the University of Jacksonville, Duval also has its fair share of the "conservative, good ol' boy, redneck tendency, who see Obama as strange, exotic and perhaps not quite American".

The local Democrats have plenty of stories of older whites, both male and female, who refuse to consider voting for an African American candidate. "They are the most difficult group to convince," says Travis Bridges, chairman of Duval's Democratic Party. "I don't see the situation changing until the older generation dies out."

For all of Duval's conservatism, there are signs that Obama is performing above traditional expectations. A poll for the University of North Florida showed McCain and Obama at level pegging in the county, with 42 per cent apiece.

Part of this can be ascribed to an initial reluctance among Republicans to embrace McCain, who trailed Mitt Romney with 27 per cent of the vote in the county's Republican primary. But there is a more significant factor at play.

On paper, registered Democrats have always outnumbered registered Republicans in Duval County. But time and again, the Democrats have been far less successful than the Republicans in turning out their vote. This trend has been particularly acute in the African American community, who make up 30 per cent of Duval's population and lean heavily towards the Democrats.

Could 2008 break the mould? With an African-American a real contender for the Presidency for the first time, there is good reason to expect a record black turnout.

The Democrats have been doing all they can to make this a reality. Working with African-American community leaders, they have sought to restore faith in the electoral system, register new voters and prepare people for polling day. And with the widespread enthusiasm for Obama within the community, it's not difficult to make the sell.

The Jacksonville Mass Choir, a predominantly African-American youth chorus, warmed up the audience at a recent Obama fund-raiser in Jacksonville. Afterwards, Obama thanked some of the young vocalists personally. One came running up to their director, Deborah McDuffie, quivering with excitement: "He shook my hand," said the girl. "Smell it!"

The challenge for the Democrats is to harness Obama's appeal not only among African Americans but young people and independent voters too.

Jerry Holland, Duval's supervisor of elections, expects that increased participation among African-Americans and lower-income groups will help to boost turnout to a staggering "85 to 90 per cent". Given that turnout in Duval has never exceeded 76 per cent, there is the potential here for a major political realignment.

John Falconetti agrees that the "biggest danger" to Republican fortunes lies in a historic African-American turnout. He stresses the "constructive dialogue" already under way between the Republicans in Duval and the African-American community.

In the short term, however, and faced with the historic Obamacandidacy, he concedes that the Republicans are unlikely to make significant inroads into the black vote. Instead, they must look elsewhere.

The instinctive Republican response to the threat of increased Democratic turnout is to boost turnout among their own supporters. But given the disparities between Republican and Democratic turnout in the past, the Republicans have a far smaller pool to tap into.

To sidestep this problem, the Republicans need new support bases, particularly among undecided voters. Groups established to date include "Business for McCain", "Young Professionals for McCain" and, more recently, "Women for McCain". The "Women for McCain" effort in Florida is a pilot programme that, if successful, could be copied across the country.

The aim is to have committed Republican women winning support for McCain from other women through an extensive phone bank programme.

"Women are more tactful than men," explains Betsy Young, chairperson of Duval's "Women for McCain" group. "We educate our women who we hope will
then persuade their husbands and others. Going woman to woman is our way to take on Obama."

Through an intricate web of networks such as these, Republicans believe they can build a coalition large enough to outweigh any surge in support for the Democrats.

The Duval Republican goal remains winning at least 60 per cent of the vote come November. The Democrats meanwhile talk of victory as "50 per cent + 1".

Stephen Baker expects a Republican victory in Duval but believes the Republican vote share will be in the lower 50s. With this level of support in the heartlands, McCain would be unlikely to carry the state. But with months of campaigning still to go it's far too early to make a definitive prediction.

Just one thing is certain. Duval is set for a lively campaign and a record turnout. Perhaps this time they will make freedom count after all.


Daniel Collings is a freelance writer who contributes to the political debate on both sides of the Atlantic. He was a co-author of
Anthony Seldon's acclaimed biography of Tony Blair and is now researching the official biography of Margaret Thatcher.